How the 2025 Condo Surge Helps San Mateo County Sellers

By Burt Tsuei

A Realtor with 20+ Years of proven track record of high quality service in the San Mateo County/Bay Area. A lifelong Bay Area resident, Burt works with buyers and sellers from Pacifica to South San Francisco to Redwood City and beyond.

The one-million-dollar gap between condos and single-family homes in San Mateo County is not normal. If you are considering buying or selling, it is essential to understand what happens when that gap begins to close. Missing this shift can cost you a lot of money. I want to break it down so you can create a clear plan, whether you own a condo, a house, or are looking to buy your first place.

What is happening with condo prices? Currently, the median condo price in San Mateo County is approximately $900,000. The median price of a single-family home is roughly $1.9 million. That is a gap of more than $1 million.

In simple terms, buyers are paying a 112% premium for a yard and more privacy. The normal gap is closer to 90%. When the gap gets this wide, something has to change. Either house prices slow down or condos start to look much more attractive.

The price per square foot shows the same story. Single-family homes sell for about $1,142 per square foot. Condos sell for about $758 per square foot. That is about 51% more per square foot for a house. You are paying hundreds of thousands of dollars more for the same amount of living space.

Why are condos set up for a boom? I see this play out with buyers like Alex and Jordan. They tour a three-bedroom house in San Carlos and feel the sticker shock. Homes are selling well over $2.2 million. They switch to condos and find a two-bedroom in Foster City for around $1 million. The schools and area are the same. The big trade-off is HOA dues and shared walls. At first, they say, “We will just rent again.” But buyers like them do not stay renters forever. When the value is clear, they move.

The data backs this up. In the third quarter of 2025, 1,037 houses were sold in the county. That is up about 6%. Only 288 condos sold, which is down about 7%. At the same time, condo inventory is up 13%. Condos are taking about 50 days to sell. Houses are taking about 27 days.

Buyers are tired of multiple offers on houses. They want a home they can afford. When they see the math, many will turn to condos. That is why I believe condos are about to boom.

How does a condo boom help single-family home sellers? A strong condo market creates real benefits for single-family home owners. Here is what happens when condos start moving again:

• The move up chain restarts. Buyers who purchase condos today often become single-family home buyers in two to three years.
• First-time buyers shift into condos. This reduces pressure in the market and helps open up space in the single-family segment.
• Appraisers get better comparable sales. More condo transactions create more comps, which helps support stronger pricing for single-family homes.
• Single-family inventory stays tight. With fewer houses coming on the market, any increase in demand helps your listing stand out.

What should you do next? If you are a buyer, this may be the time to focus on condos in San Mateo, Foster City, Redwood City, and Daly City. Look for buildings built after 1990. Aim for HOA dues under $700. Try to get at least two bedrooms. Condos are sitting about 50 days, so you have room to negotiate. Getting in before the 2026 rush can put you in a better spot later.

If you own a single-family home, price your home in line with today’s market. Bidding wars are still happening, but on average, they are closer to 103% of list price, not far above that.

If you own a condo, think about holding or doing smart updates. The boom is expected to start in 2026. Stage your condo and do a pre-inspection so buyers feel confident. Listing in the first quarter of 2026 could help you catch the early wave.

A condo boom is not just a market headline because it can reshape the path for both condo owners and single-family home sellers. You need to understand how the price gap, the timing, and the move up chain work so you can decide when to buy, when to hold, and when to sell.

Look closely at your numbers, your timeline, and your goals, and review your options with a real estate professional who knows this area and this data. If you have any questions about the condo market or your next move, feel free to call or text me at 650-274-3598 or email me at Burt@RealEstateBurt.com.