Homeowners near Hillsdale Mall have spent months asking the same question: how bad is this going to be? The answer depends on details most of them haven’t seen, and the project is far enough along that guessing is no longer a good option.

What’s coming is a Hillsdale redevelopment of 44 acres beside the Caltrain station, to be rebuilt into four million square feet of housing and commercial space, with up to 1,670 homes. Bohannon and Northwood have already filed with the city. CEQA review finishes mid-2026, and hearings follow, which puts roughly 18 months between now and the decisions that will shape values for anyone within a mile.

What the application actually proposes. The 12-acre north block with Apple and the bowling alley stays. What gets demolished is the enclosed section south of 31st Avenue, replaced by about 2.06 million square feet of commercial space and 2.39 million square feet of residential space. Heights step down as the site moves west: eight to ten stories along El Camino Real, five to eight closer to Hillsdale Boulevard, and three-story townhomes set back where the project meets existing single-family homes.

That last detail matters more than the ten-story headline, because your distance from the tallest buildings is your real exposure. Worth knowing too: none of this is approved. The council hasn’t voted, the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) review isn’t complete, and even on schedule, construction starts about five years out and gets phased in pieces across multiple economic cycles.

What the project genuinely gets right.

• Start with the housing. San Mateo County hasn’t come close to building what it needs for decades, and the consequence shows in who commutes here rather than lives here. Teachers can’t afford to live in the towns where they teach. Nurses at Mills-Peninsula and local firefighters drive in from Tracy and Modesto. This project sets aside 14% of its units, roughly 230 homes, as below market rate on one of the few peninsula sites big enough to matter.
• Then there’s the location. Housing next to a Caltrain station generates far less traffic than the same housing built somewhere car-dependent, because residents can reach San Francisco or San Jose by rail and walk to groceries and a movie theater.
• Finally, consider the revitalized mall. The enclosed mall is losing tenants and foot traffic, which is what enclosed malls have been doing everywhere. Forty-four underused acres next door doesn’t hold steady, it declines, and walkable districts generally support nearby values rather than drag on them

Three game plans, depending on your timeline. If you’re selling within two years, you have a window worth using. Right now, the disclosure reads “under study.” After approval, it reads “approved and on the way,” and buyers price those differently. If you’re holding five to 10 years, construction becomes part of daily life, so a major remodel finishing as demolition begins is poorly timed money. Windows, insulation, and sound-attenuating glass on the side facing the site hold up better. If you’re staying 15 or 20 years, you’re likely on the winning end, since walkable development beside rail has a long history of lifting values around it.

What to do over the next twelve months. Get a written valuation now, so you have a baseline that predates any approval. Read the city’s actual application materials instead of the coverage, and find your house on the site maps. And show up to the public meetings, because state housing law limits what cities can demand, but details on a project this size still move with public input.

You can watch the full video above, or feel free to skip to the topics that interest you most using the timestamps below:

00:00 — Hillsdale Development

01:53 — What’s Actually Proposed

04:13 — Positive Cases

08:35 — Three Game Plans

11:24 — Next Twelve Months

12:44 — The Bottom Line

This development is the largest thing San Mateo has seen in generations, and it’s moving forward. The question isn’t whether it happens. It’s whether you decide with it in front of you or react later. If you want a frank read on how this affects your value based on your block, your orientation, and your timeline, reach out. We’ve already run this analysis for several owners nearby.

Call or text us at 1-650-274-3598, email us at Burt@RealEstateBurt.com, or visit realestateburt.com.