In San Mateo County, prices of single-family homes increased, while condos decreased. These 2026 first-quarter numbers came in from our MLS, and most buyers I talk to don’t realize the gap has never been wider on the peninsula. In fact, every condo buyer should hear the story the data tells, because they now have leverage for the first time in a long while.

Set the two segments side by side, and they’ve split in opposite directions. On the single-family side, the countywide median climbed from roughly $2 million a year ago to about $2.09 million this quarter; sellers are still landing an average of 107% of list, so buyers are paying about 7% over asking, and homes are gone in 24 days.

Condos did none of that. Their median slid from $950,000 to $878,000, a 7.6% drop in a year; sellers went from overasking to exactly 100% of list price, and time to sell stretched from 37 days to 41. That same divergence is what local outlets have been reporting countywide.

In terms of price per square foot, the split is 51%. A year ago, a single-family home cost about 40% more per square foot than a condo. Today that premium is 51%, and that’s the gap almost nobody is talking about. The two property types didn’t just grow apart at different rates; they moved in opposite directions.

County averages, though, hide how uneven this is city to city. San Mateo is the clearest example: houses there rose almost 18% in a year while condos fell 19%, a 37-point spread inside one market, and Redwood City and Burlingame condos each gave back roughly a quarter of their value while houses climbed.

The one place the pattern breaks is Menlo Park, where condos jumped 30% as houses slipped 12%, most likely a function of tech money near Sand Hill Road and thin condo supply.

Everywhere else, from Daly City through San Bruno, Redwood City, San Carlos, and Belmont, the story is the same. Houses kept running. Condos took a breath.

For a condo buyer, that breath is worth three things a single-family buyer can’t get right now.

• The first is room for negotiation. Condos are settling at exactly list price, down from 2% over a year ago, while houses still sell 7% above, so an offer at or even under asking is a real conversation instead of a lost cause.
• The second is time. At 41 days on market against 24 for houses, you can tour a place, sit with it over the weekend, loop in your lender, and still come back to write, where a comparable house would already be gone.
• The third is price itself. The typical condo runs about $72,000 below where it sat a year ago, a discount the size of a down payment, and it comes without the bidding wars, the appraisal gaps, or the letters begging a seller to pick you.

The question every buyer asks next is whether condos will catch up. The data proves the gap is real. It does not prove the gap will close. There’s a reasonable case either way, but here’s what matters: you don’t have to call the future correctly for this to work. The reason to buy a condo now isn’t a bet on appreciation, it’s what’s already true today. You have leverage, you have time, and you’re paying less than buyers paid a year ago. If prices climb from here, that’s a bonus. If they don’t, you still came in under last year’s market and skipped the bidding-war circus on the other side.

So if you’re weighing a condo or townhouse anywhere in the county, from Daly City to Menlo Park to Foster City and Burlingame, we’d be glad to help you find where the opening is widest for your situation.

Call or text us at 1-650-274-3598, email us at Burt@RealEstateBurt.com, or visit realestateburt.com, and we’ll go through the numbers for the city you’re targeting and tell you what we’re seeing on the ground.